Making Better Product Decisions: Decoupling Bad Luck from Bad Decision-Making (1 hour)

As a product manager, being able to facilitate good decision-making is a critical part of your work. But, most of the approaches typically used to make decisions are not effective, and can do more harm than good, in part because they don’t distinguish between bad luck and bad decision-making. A good decision can still have a bad outcome if there is bad luck. A bad decision can also have a good outcome if there is good luck. In this session, I offer a new, better approach to making decisions based on poker that decouples luck and quality of decision-making. It will enable product managers to more accurately learn from past experiences, helping achieve better decision-making, faster. This interactive session will provide frameworks and involve everyone applying them to their own past and future product decisions, with a lot of discussion.